Conference proceeding
 
CC-BY-NC 4.0
 
 

Recent trends in tobacco sales, excise revenues, and affordability in the former USSR countries

 
1
Ukrainian Institute for Strategic Studies of the Ministry of Health, Kiev, Ukraine
Tob. Prev. Cessation 2017;3(May Supplement):69
Publish date: 2017-05-25
KEYWORDS:
 
ABSTRACT:
Introduction:
Twelve countries of former USSR adopted various tobacco taxation policies in 2008-2015. The aim of this study is to compare trends in tobacco sales and tobacco excise revenues to estimate the impact of tobacco taxation.

Material and Methods:
Data on revenues and sales were collected from the official websites. If sales were not reported, the turnover (= production + import – export) data were used. Consumer price indices (CPI) data for tobacco products were also collected. Tobacco affordability was estimated as CPI-tobacco relative to annual GDP change.

Results:
Cigarette sales in 2008-2015 in the 12 countries combined decreased by 26%. The large decline was observed in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan, while in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Belarus, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan sales were rather stable or even increased. Real (inflation-adjusted) tobacco excise revenues substantially increased in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus, while in Georgia and Armenia the increase was small. Real tobacco prices increased much in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus, while in Tajikistan and Armenia those prices decreased. Tobacco affordability decreased in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus, while in Tajikistan and Armenia cigarettes became more affordable.

Conclusions:
Cigarette sales in the region decreased in 2008-2015 and the key factor for the decline was the reduction of tobacco affordability. Only the substantial increase in excise rates can guarantee both revenue growth and the reduction of tobacco consumption. To reduce tobacco consumption, excise rates should be increased annually taking into account inflation and income growth.



CORRESPONDING AUTHOR:
Konstantin Krasovsky   
Ukrainian Institute for Strategic Studies of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, Grigorenko, 7а, 02068 Kiev, Ukraine
eISSN:2459-3087