Objective:
To estimate the burden of smoking in Switzerland for 2015 and predict smoking-related deaths until 2050.

Methods:
Smoking attributable fractions (SAFs) are calculated based on the prevalence of smoking from the Swiss Health Survey and risk ratios extracted from literature. The burden of smoking is then estimated by applying these SAFs to total deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), direct medical costs and productivity losses in the population. Deaths stem from the Swiss Death Statistics, DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study and disease costs from a recent study on the costs of non-communicable diseases in Switzerland. The smoking-related deaths are forecasted based on data from 1995 to 2015 using time-series analysis.

Results:
In 2015, smoking caused 9535 deaths (14.1% of all deaths) and 208999 DALYs (10.2% of all DALYs). Direct medical costs of smoking were estimated at CHF 3 billion (CHF 363 per capita), 3.9% of all health-related spending, and productivity losses at CHF 2 billion (CHF 242 per capita). Our model predicts an increase in smoking-related deaths in women and a decrease in men until 2050.

Conclusion:
Smoking causes a substantial burden for the Swiss society. Therefore, reducing smoking prevalence is an urgent public health priority.